White Paper

By Herbert Weisberg, Ph.D.

Correlation Research, Inc.

July 12, 1996 (updated June 29, 2005)

Predictive Validity - Research data is collected on people one year after they were assessed to determine how well the assessment predicted their potential for growth.  Predictive Validity is considered a much more powerful support of a selection tool than is concurrent validity.  It is also much more expensive and time consuming to conduct this kind of research and as a result, fewer assessments on the market provide users with information on Predictive Validity.

The Dave Kurlan Sales Force Profile is primarily aimed at distinguishing those individuals who have substantial potential for growth in sales from those with limited potential. The profile is based on an online multiple-choice form completed by an employee. From the pattern of responses, a clear determination of potential to overcome selling limitations can be assessed.

            Correlation Research, Inc. was engaged to perform a study of how accurately the Kurlan Sales Force Profile can identify growth potential. We have designed the research methodology and conducted a study. This report describes the research design and presents the results obtained.

            The basic approach involves a follow-up questionnaire to sales managers at least one year after the initial evaluation of their personnel. A copy of this data collection form has been attached as Appendix A. In addition to some basic demographic data, the manager is asked to indicate whether real growth in overcoming sales limitations has occurred and which specific weaknesses remain. In addition, an estimate of the percent increase in sales effectiveness is requested.

            Since the managers are unaware of the original Kurlan predictions, their assessments provide an unbiased measure of actual growth. However, it must be remembered that the Kurlan predictions relate to the potential for growth. Actual growth depends also on appropriate follow-up sales training to overcome the specific weaknesses. Thus, we solicited responses only from companies believed to have implemented effective training based on the Kurlan recommendations. However, because the extent of such training is uncertain, our results may be somewhat conservative.

            A survey was conducted at twenty companies that had employees assessed using the Kurlan Sales Force Profile. The data obtained from those companies indicates that this approach to data collection is effective. The results are summarized below for the 180 employees evaluated.

Results of the Test to Evaluate the Kurlan Sales Force Profile

In all, the Profile’s prediction proved accurate in 160 out of 180 cases (88%). Note that the 60 out of 80 who actually achieved real growth represents a minimal estimate of the number who had potential for growth, since we do not have detailed information on the follow-up training received by all 80 of these individuals.

            These results suggest that the Profile is able to distinguish very accurately between individuals who have the potential for improvement and those who do not.